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Look At China 's Economic Development In 2018 From The Manufacturing Index
Jan 20, 2018

Look at China 's Economic Development in 2018 from the Manufacturing Index


There are two important macroeconomic indicators, one CPI and one PMI. CPI we are all familiar with the monetary policy has some guiding significance. The PMI we seldom say, everyone's awareness is also low, this article from the PMI point of view, analyze the future economy.


The full English name of the PMI index is Purchasing Managers'Index. The Chinese meaning is the purchasing manager index, which is an index compiled from the monthly survey of purchasing managers and reflects the changing trend of the economy. PMI is a monthly release of a comprehensive economic monitoring indicator system, divided into manufacturing PMI, service PMI, there are some countries have established the construction industry PMI. The PMI index of 50 is the divergence line. diamond core bits


Let's review the PMI for 2017. In 2017, the overall PMI of manufacturing industry rose steadily with an average annualized value of 51.6%, 1.3 percentage points higher than the overall level of the previous year. This shows that the manufacturing industry has become more stable with a steady development trend. In the month of December, the manufacturing PMI was 51.6%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month but still reaching the annual average level and above 15% for 15 consecutive months. Compared with the previous month, seven indexes such as production and new orders slipped slightly, down by less than 0.5 percentage point. Six indices, such as new export orders, purchase prices and ex-factory prices, went up. The purchase price index increased significantly. From the December data, the manufacturing PMI remained strong expansion momentum, the production index and new orders index was 54.0% and 53.4%, respectively, down 0.3 and 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, but still higher than the annual average of 0.1 And 0.3 percentage points. Moreover, the new momentum accelerated growth. The PMI for high-tech manufacturing was 53.8%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points from the previous month. Its annual average was significantly higher than that of the previous year and the overall manufacturing industry, leading the manufacturing economy towards high quality.


From the data, we can see that the new export order index and import index both rose for two consecutive months, up 51.9% and 51.2% in December from the previous month respectively due to the global economic recovery and the acceleration of global trade. Up 1.1 and 0.2 percentage points higher. At present, the growth of supply and demand is stable, the inventory level is at a low level, prices continue to rise, the gains are accelerating, the employment situation is stable, the production and operation of enterprises are in a good shape, the outlook is optimistic and the economic operation is in a steady state. diamond polishing pad


In addition to the active manufacturing sector, non-manufacturing industries also continued their steady and rapid expansion. In 2017, the annual average of non-manufacturing business activities index was 54.6%, 0.9 percentage point higher than the overall level of the previous year. It remained at a relatively high level and maintained a steady and rapid expansion. In the month of December, the non-manufacturing business activity index was 55.0%, 0.2 percentage points higher than that of the previous month and the highest level in the fourth quarter. The pace of expansion accelerated at the end of the year. Among them, the new orders, new export orders and practitioners index increased by 0.1 to 0.6 percentage points; in-hand orders, inventories, input prices, sales prices, supplier delivery time and expected business activity index The chain has declined, a decrease of 0.2 to 1.4 percentage points. Since 2017, except for August, the index remained at a high level above 54%, with the annual average value up 0.9 ppt YoY to 54.6%, indicating that on the basis of steady and rapid growth of non-manufacturing industries, Continue to develop well. Non-manufacturing business activity index and new order index continued to rise in December. The sales price index stabilized at above 52%, and the index of employed personnel increased slightly above 49%. The annual average of the indices above the same period of previous year shows that non-manufacturing On the basis of faster growth, we will continue to develop steadily and soundly. Meanwhile, the index for business services in December was 53.4%, down slightly by 0.2% from the previous month. In the fourth quarter, the index remained at a booming region of 53.5%. The overall operation was stable, indicating that the service industry continued to maintain a sound development trend.


It can be seen from the data that the economic operation in 2017 will continue to be stable and well, laying a good foundation for the economic development in 2018. From the expected index, enterprises are full of confidence in the new year's economic development. From a macroeconomic point of view, the PMI index tends to have a leading CPI index, PMI gradually prosperity, CPI will not continue to slump. China's economic development in 2018, full of confidence!